経済見通しに関するブリーフィング

Let me walk you through our updated macroeconomic outlook for the coming year. We expect headline inflation to continue moderating, settling closer to the central bank's target range by the second half of the year, though core inflation, particularly in services, is likely to remain somewhat sticky. On growth, our base case calls for a soft landing: GDP growth slowing to around one and a half percent, down from just over two percent this year, but avoiding an outright contraction. That said, we assign meaningful probability, around thirty percent, to a more pronounced slowdown if labor markets weaken faster than expected. Interest rates are the key variable to watch. We anticipate the central bank will begin cutting rates in the second quarter, with a cumulative reduction of roughly seventy-five basis points by year-end, though this path is highly data-dependent. For businesses, the practical implication is straightforward: financing conditions should ease gradually, but planning around a single rate-cut scenario would be unwise given the range of outcomes still on the table.